By Benny YP Siahaan[1]
The developments in North Africa
particularly in Tunisia and then Algeria in recent weeks are interesting to
observe. Some say they may stands as an impetus for future reform in the Arab
world at large. Indeed, a series of popular
uprisings in Tunisia since mid-December last year involving around 200 thousand
protesters ultimately toppled President Zine el Abidin Ben Ali from his 23
years of repressive and autocratic rule. The reasons of protesters were socio-economic
since the government failed to provide their basic needs such as jobs, food and
shelters.
The logical question that may arise from
this event is whether the recent development in Maghreb countries particularly
in Tunisia will have a domino effect to the region or just can be contained in
that country. Or, if we want to go further, is whether this event will bring a
wave of democratization in the Arab world.
As we may aware, Samuel Huntington
argued that there are three waves of democratization since the 19th
century. According to him, the third
wave have started since 1974 and still continue which includes democratization
in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asian countries, which include
democratization in South Korea, the Philippines and perhaps Indonesia.
The only region that was excluded by
these waves of democratization is the Arab world which span from the Middle
East until North Africa (MENA). If there
is a sign of democracy in one of these countries in recent years it must be superficial
and merely a window dressing "political reform".
Thus, it is valid that if some people now
say the time has come to the Arab world for democratization and waiting for the
domino effect of what happened in Tunisia. However, I would rather skeptical on
that premise.
Firstly, the whole the
idea of reform and democratization in MENA countries may not be entirely good
idea for Western countries, since autocratic regimes that currently ruling in
this region in fact an important allies to Western countries in their “war on
terror”. Therefore, I believe the Western world would do everything they can to
preserve their allies in the Arab world in power. Indeed, the fall of Ben Ali
was a big blow for them. This can be seen, among other, from how slow the Western
countries made a public statement concerning the bloody civil unrest in
Tunisia. On January 18, President Barack Obama spoke with Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak on a broad range of issues, including the developments in
Tunisia. Furthermore, what was happened in Gaza where Hamas became the political
winner through a democratic election perhaps is not the kind of “democratization”
that the Western countries wanted to happen in the Arab world particularly in
the midst of their war on terrorism.
Secondly, the popular
uprising in Tunisia sparked by economic deprivation not ideological one like
democracy or liberalism. And many countries which are considered democratic but
still poor. Thus being democractic and being affluent is not always correlated.
In places where economic inequality, corruption and unemployment is rampant,
then the popular uprising may take place. Hence , in other words, the domino
effect of Tunisia in the Arab world will not be automatically affect the whole
region.
Thirdly, learning from
the situation in Tunisia, we have seen governments in the region take action in
order to address some of the issues that may stir unrest within these
countries. For example, Egypt and Syria
have already made anticipation moves in the case of facing Tunisia’s case. On
17 January 2011 the Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party made a statement
that Egypt’s poor should not bear additional burdens. On the same day, the Syrian
government also suddenly announced that there is a $ 50 million aid plan to
help around 420.000 impoverished Syrian families that will be disbursed in this
February. Although we may not know the response of the people in the respective
countries to these “generous policy” and it depends on the actual implementation
of those policies but at least some pre-emptive actions have been made to
prevent the occurrence of the same situation that were happened in Tunisia.
Apart from the above considerations, the
other thing that is interesting to observe from the Tunisia’s case is that for
the very first time self-burning which is widely known as self-immolation was
used as a tool to provoke public wrath and eventually unrest in the Arab world.
Previously, this method commonly associated with religious protests/acts in South
Asia and East Asia including Southeast Asia and it was carried out also without
religious motives in different parts of the world except in the Arab world. For instance, the famous case in the Southeast Asia was
the self immolation by a Buddhist monk, Thich Quang Duc who immolated himself
in a busy intersection in Saigon, Vietnam in 1963 as a moral protest to his
government.
I think this is for the second time the
Arab world, in order to serve their purpose, copied a controversial tactic that
is commonly used in other regions. In the 1980s suicide bombing were duplicated
in the Middle East as a form of resistance against Israeli’s occupation. Self-burning
in Tunisia carries more political and economic motives than religious one. Thus, just like suicide bombing, self-immolation
acts in North Africa will draw a heated debate in the Arab world on whether it
is permitted in Islamic tenets to commit self-burning as a form of protests
about their unfortunate socio-economic condition.
In literature, self-burning may become a
very effective strategy particularly if they do it in public with wide coverage
in order that message they want to send will spread as wide as possible. Once
the news spread consequences that may follow will be beyond the anyone’s
control including the government. Furthermore, it is also a method that doesn't
harm others like suicide bombings so it may easily garner public support. For
the government of Tunisia perhaps this is the very first case for them to
encounter self-immolation. Hence, I can imagine the confusion of the Tunisian
authorities to act firmly but correctly.
The question that may arise from this
self-immolation is that if this strategy is proven to be effective in
overthrowing pro–West Tunisian government, will this method be adopted by
terrorists group like Al-Qaida in toppling down other autocratic secular regimes
in the Arab world? As we might aware the enemies of Al Qaida beside the Western
countries are the autocratic regimes in the Arab world let alone the pro-West
one. In this case, I think it is too early to tell but the option is there.
All in all, what will follow to happen
in Tunisia is still fluid and too early to judge. After President Ben Ali left
the country, the interim leader promised that the election will be held within
60 days. On the other side, the Al-Qaida in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) through
their website stated their support and called the people of Tunisia and Algeria
to continue their struggle in order to establish an Islamic state based on strict
Sharia law. Therefore, what kind of government that will be yielded from that
election will determine the future of Tunisia, particularly its democratization
and reform, and perhaps eventually the Arab world in general.
-----
Jakarta, 19 January 2011
[1]
The writer is an alumnus of
Tsukuba University in Japan, once resided in Damascus, Syria from 1998-2002.
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