Damascus during winter. Photo credit: http://maisonsyrienne.wordpress.com/
By
Benny YP Siahaan[1]
Since
the beginning of this year Western media have been averring that Bashar al-Assad
days of Syria are counted. May be it is true at certain point. But the most recent
developments make many have lost faith in the prediction of the unsustainability
of the Assad regime. Instead, many are now worry about the future of peace in
the Middle East in general. The recent resignation of Kofi Annan as peace envoy
may become a stark example of this concern. He must have a strong reason to
resign and do not want to be blamed for something that is doomed to fail.
Indeed,
while Arab/Gulf states held a meeting in Jeddah on 12/8 to discuss Syria
including possible replacement of Kofi Annan, Iran held a conference on Syria
(8/8) attended by around 30 countries (reportedly Indonesia and India were in
the participant list). This is another example the magnitude and the complexity
of the Syrian conflict particularly on the terms that the conflict has become a
proxy to a wider foreign interests.
Against
this backdrop, I was tempted to use analogy for the situation in Syria borrowing
the famous essay of the late Isaiah Berlin titled The Hedgehog and the Fox: An Essay on Tolstoy’s View of History. This essay was based on bestiary tale in a fragment attributed to the ancient Greek poet
Archilochus which described
that hedgehog is the animal that only knows one big thing, while fox is depicted as animal which knows
many things.
In this
essay Berlin developed further this story to divide world’s writers and thinkers
into two categories: hedgehogs, which view the world through the single point
of view and foxes that act based on wide experiences and consequently comprehend
that the world cannot be viewed into a single notion.
Bashar Assad is hedgehog who only knows that sustainability of his power is of paramount importance than anything else. After 17 months, the conflict between the government and the rebel group has caused more than 20 thousand lives from both sides, mostly civilian.
Western and Gulf countries together with
the rebel group are hedgehogs too. Their demand and determination for regime
change makes them suits to hedgehog category. Past experiences showed us that
regime change will only create further insecurity. Unseating
Bashar Assad, surely will create more chaos and anarchy, just like with the
removal of Saddam Hussein of Iraq.
As Manaf Tlass, a defected
Assad General, called recently from his exile in Paris that national
reconciliation is the best way to end this conflict. Indeed, if the current trend
continues, Syria will end up like Lebanon civil war in the past. Hence, instead
of removing, perhaps it is better to engage him. In the place of imposing more
sanctions, it is wise to inspire him to be more benign and liberal through providing
various incentives.
Russia, China and Iran can also be
considered as hedgehog due to their views that the
downfall of Bashar Assad would be a severe blow to their interests in the
Middle East makes them persistent in supporting Assad regime at all cost.
Assessing the current situation, it
seems now that the government and opposition forces
have reached a stalemate in which the government cannot quell the unrest, and
the rebel group cannot bring down the government. The opposition believes that
they cannot topple the regime without outside intervention. The same goes to Bashar regime that
they would not have stood until this present day without foreign intervention.
In this regard, continuing to arm both
sides (the government and rebel group) will never serve their goals but compounded
the situation. In fact, theoretically and empirically, stalemate situations in
the past, might bring the warring parties to the table for negotiation. In this
regard, there is a need to make a bold move from the concerned parties outside
Syria to coerce the Government and the rebel group to sit and negotiate for the
peaceful future of Syria and continue the democratization process which was
halted due to considerable foreign interventions.
In this light, a type of national reconciliation
inspired from the Taif Agreement (1989), which ended decades-long civil war in Lebanon,
is worth trying. For example, it may include, among others, a political accommodation of the demographic reality
particularly on the shift from Alawit minority rule to Sunni majority rule
amicably and democratically.
Indeed, it too sad to see from the media
that too many lives were taken and the beautiful cities of Damascus and Aleppo are
being ruined due to civil war. In this regard, I concur with the view that we
cannot afford further more war in the region especially in Syria since it may have
a potential to escalate to a wider open conflict particularly between Iran
versus the US (and its allies) which in turn will truly threaten world peace.
Taking everything into account, examples
in the past and present have shown us that conflicts in the Middle East are
very delicate and complex. Hence, hedgehogs’ views for solution will never
prevail in this region.
Instead, leadership, experience, creative
and bold thinking of the foxes are badly needed if we were serious to end the
civil-war in Syria. Perhaps Indonesia may offer to a play role in this. The
recent example of effectively calming down the discord over the South China Sea
in ASEAN context is worth noting experience and creativity.
Jakarta, 12 August 2012
[1]
The writer is an alumnus of Tsukuba University in Japan and was stationed in
Damascus, Syria in 1998-2002.
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